A "Green Room" Viewpoint at the BBC - "Sowing the seeds of farming's future" by Les Firbank

Global food stocks are running low and rich nations should not take security of supplies for granted, argues Les Firbank. In this week's Green Room, he outlines his vision for sustainable farming amid the uncertainties we face in the 21st Century.

The area for food production will decline as farmland is lost to housing, bio-energy cropping and, ultimately, sea level rise In the last 12 months, the price of wheat has doubled, and all of a sudden, talk of food security is back on the agenda.

Global food stocks are running low

There are three main reasons:

* increasing use of crops for bio-energy, especially in the US
* increasing demand for meat and milk products in the developing world
(livestock are often fed grain and seeds, even if for only part of the year)
* poor harvests around the world following droughts and floods

We are already seeing changes to farming. In Europe, the set-aside programme, a way of managing food surpluses by paying farmers not to grow crops, will no longer apply.

This alone will not be enough; the area for food production will decline as farmland is lost to housing, bio-energy cropping and, ultimately, sea level rise.

This means we will need to produce more food per hectare from the farmland that will remain.

Lessons from history

The last time that food shortage was a real issue in Britain was around the time of World War II.

It will not be acceptable to increase production without regard for the environment

Production was increased both by bringing marginal land into use, and intensification through pesticides, artificial fertilisers, new varieties and new machinery.

But this was at a high environmental cost, not all of which has been reversed. The importance of land management to water quality, flood control, soil conservation, landscape beauty and biodiversity had simply not been appreciated.

Only recently have we started to think about how agriculture should contribute to managing climate change by controlling the release of greenhouse gases and by storing carbon in the soil.

It will not be acceptable to increase production without regard for the environment, and we will increasingly demand food that is safe and contributes to healthy diets.

Equally, it will not be acceptable to lose those historic agricultural landscapes important to our emotional well-being and connection with nature.

Fresh vision

Societies will need a new vision of sustainable agriculture that addresses production, environmental and social needs together, that balances our own potential and needs in Britain with those of Europe and rest of the world.

Moreover, this new vision needs to be flexible enough to cope with sudden change, whether this is the spread of a new disease like bluetongue virus, changing patterns of rainfall or increased demand for cereals.

While no one knows what future farming will be like in detail, we know enough to start to sketch what would help its sustainability.

We need to be more self-sufficient in food, water and energy. This will protect us